CME Scoreboard |
|
Prediction for CME (2023-10-18T06:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-10-18T06:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27364/-1 CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears fairly faint in SOHO imagery, but is more clearly defined in STEREO A imagery. The source appears to be a minor/brief eruption from ~S23E37 starting around 2023-10-18T05:37Z with filament ejecta visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 06:00Z and associated dimming seen at 06:38Z following eruption in SDO/AIA 193. There are some minor and brief post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 335 best seen around 06:30Z. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T21:34Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0 Prediction Method: SARM Prediction Method Note: CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-18 10:55 â- Time at C2: 2023-10-18 06:12 â- Radial speed: 709.0 km/s â- Half angle: 37 deg â- Eruption location: S32E37 âInferences: ââ - No flare association was found âPredictions for Earth: ââ - In-situ shock speed: 618.70 km/s ââ - Shock arrival time: 2023-10-20 21:34 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.38 hours)Lead Time: 49.02 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-10-18T20:33Z |
|
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers. Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy |